Bay of Bengal depression set to become Cyclone Arnab, Andhra coast braced for 28 October

A depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday evening and is expected to grow into Cyclone Arnab before slamming into the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

At 5:30 pm the system lay about 820 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam, 910 km east-south-east of Kakinada and 1,100 km east of Bapatla, and some 510 km north-north-west of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands.

The IMD expects it to drift almost due south on Sunday and strengthen into a deep depression, then curve back towards the west-north-west. It should become a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay by Monday morning, when it will take the name Arnab, and a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday morning.

Where and when it will hit

By the forenoon of 28 October, the storm is “very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam” as a very severe cyclonic storm, the IMD said. Maximum sustained winds are forecast at 115 to 125 km/h, gusting to 140 km/h.

Manorama Mohanty, director of the IMD’s Bhubaneswar centre, said the system would keep intensifying as it moved west-north-west. “The sea conditions are very likely to be very rough,” she said.

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, after a review meeting in Bhubaneswar, put landfall on the afternoon of 28 October “somewhere between northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha”. “As always, our primary objective remains the same: Zero casualties,” he said.

Red warning for southern Odisha

Although the storm’s eye is aimed at Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha is likely to get some of the heaviest rain. The IMD has issued a red warning of heavy to very heavy rain, with extremely heavy rain at places, for Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam on 28 October, with thunderstorms and gusts of up to 80 km/h.

Rain is expected to start a day earlier. On 27 October, heavy to very heavy rain is forecast at one or two places in Jagatsinghpur, Puri and the five southern districts, while Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj and Khordha could see heavy rain and thunderstorms. Heavy spells may carry on into 29 October across the north and west of the state, including Sambalpur, Sundargarh and Jharsuguda.

Fishermen have been told not to go to sea until 28 October.

What the storm could do

The IMD’s impact advisory warns of damage to kutcha houses, broken branches and disrupted power and communication lines. Standing crops, and banana and papaya plantations in particular, are at high risk. Waterlogging could close roads in towns, while the hilly south of Odisha faces the possibility of landslides, and prolonged rain could swell rivers.

Residents have been urged to follow official advisories, avoid unnecessary travel and be ready to move to cyclone shelters if asked.

The storm has already disrupted plans in Odisha. President Droupadi Murmu’s two-day visit to her home district of Mayurbhanj, due on 28 and 29 October, has been moved to 4 and 5 November.