WorldSouth Asia
Bangladesh set to edge past India on income per head this year, IMF figures show
The IMF puts Bangladesh's 2026 GDP per person at $2,886 against India's $2,749 at market exchange rates. Adjusted for prices, India stays well ahead, and is projected to pull back in front by 2029.
Key points
- IMF projections put Bangladesh's 2026 per capita GDP at $2,886, India's at $2,749.
- Adjusted for local prices, India leads: $12,998 against Bangladesh's $10,884.
- India is projected to overtake Bangladesh again in 2029.
Bangladesh is on course to overtake India this year in income per head at market exchange rates, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest projections.
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook puts Bangladesh’s GDP per person in 2026 at $2,886, against $2,749 for India. The gap is projected to widen slightly in 2027, to $3,219 against $3,036, before narrowing. By 2029, India is expected to be back in front, at $3,661 to Bangladesh’s $3,334.
The headline number hides a lot. India’s economy, at $4.15 trillion, is still about eight times the size of Bangladesh’s $506.4 billion. Adjusted for what money buys at home, India’s per capita income of $12,998 is well above Bangladesh’s $10,884. India is also forecast to grow at 7% this year, against 3.6% for Bangladesh, where average inflation is projected at 8.7%.
Economists credit Bangladesh’s rise to export-led manufacturing, especially its $38 billion garment industry, to remittances and to more women joining the workforce. “That’s a positive side of export-oriented manufacturing growth that Bangladesh is getting right,” the Indian economist Santosh Mehrotra said. He noted that manufacturing’s share of India’s GDP fell from 15.1% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2024, according to World Bank data.
Bangladesh’s lead is fragile. It imports about 95% of its oil and LNG, much of it from the Middle East, and its garment exports, more than 80% of its export earnings, have been hit by the disruption to shipping through the Red Sea and the Gulf since the war on Iran began.