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China's third-quarter growth figures due today, with 4.4% expected
Beijing publishes GDP and September activity data on Monday, the start of a busy week for Asian economies that also brings China's lending rates, a Bank of Korea decision and Japanese inflation.
Key points
- Economists expect China's GDP to have grown 4.4% year on year in July-September, up from 4.3%.
- Retail sales are forecast to rise just 0.7% in September, a sign of weak demand at home.
- The Bank of Korea is expected to hold at 3.00% on Thursday after two hikes.
China publishes its economic growth figures for July to September on Monday, with economists expecting a small pick-up that still leaves the world’s second-largest economy short of Beijing’s goal.
Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown 4.4 per cent from a year earlier, after 4.3 per cent in the April-June quarter, and 1.1 per cent from the previous quarter, up from 0.9 per cent. That would sit below the 4.5 to 5.0 per cent growth target that analysts at the markets service Newsquawk cite for this year.
The September numbers released alongside are expected to show a split economy. Industrial production is forecast to rise by between 5.3 and 5.5 per cent, against 5.2 per cent in August, helped by resilient factories and exports. Retail sales, by contrast, are expected to grow only 0.7 per cent, after 0.4 per cent, and fixed-asset investment is forecast to shrink 7.5 per cent, deeper than the 7.2 per cent fall last time.
The data will shape expectations for Tuesday, when the People’s Bank of China sets its benchmark loan prime rates. Both the one-year rate of 3.00 per cent and the five-year rate of 3.50 per cent are expected to stay unchanged for a 17th straight month, though a weak set of figures could raise bets on more support later in the quarter.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Korea meets on Thursday and is expected to keep its base rate at 3.00 per cent after quarter-point rises in July and August. On Friday, Japan reports September consumer prices, forecast to jump to between 2.8 and 3.0 per cent from 1.9 per cent as energy subsidies fade. It is the last major inflation reading before the Bank of Japan’s October meeting, and a strong number would add to expectations of further tightening.
For Indian markets, which open a holiday-shortened week on Monday, the Chinese figures are one more signal on global demand alongside oil prices and the Hormuz crisis.