Science & TechClimate
East and Northeast India had their driest monsoon in 125 years of records
The region got 1,017.1 mm of rain between June and September, a quarter below normal, as a developing El Niño left Meghalaya, Manipur and Bihar parched and five states declared drought.
Key points
- East and Northeast India received 25.6% less rain than normal, the lowest total since records began in 1901.
- Meghalaya, usually among the wettest places on earth, finished 60% short.
- IMD expects below-normal rain for most of India from October to December.
The monsoon that ended on 30 September was the driest on record for East and Northeast India. The region received 1,017.1 mm of rain against a normal of 1,367.3 mm, a shortfall of 25.6%, according to an analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) data by the climate communications group Climate Trends. That is the lowest total in 125 years of records, below the previous low of 1,065.7 mm in 2013.
India as a whole finished 13% below normal, its weakest season in a decade. The analysis links the poor rains to a developing El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific that tends to weaken the Indian monsoon.
Where the rain failed
The hills of the Northeast were hit hardest. Meghalaya, home to some of the wettest places on earth, ended the season 60% short, with 10 of its 11 districts deficient. Manipur was 46% below normal and Arunachal Pradesh 44%. On the plains, Bihar was 32% short, with 33 of its 38 districts in deficit, and Assam 28%, with 22 of 35 districts short.
Only Sikkim, Nagaland and West Bengal ended above normal. The South Peninsula also had a poor season, 24% below normal and its fourth-lowest since 1901, while central and northwest India finished close to normal.
The failure is part of a longer pattern. East and Northeast India have had below-normal rain in nine of the last ten years, the only exception being 2020. The deficit was 14% in 2024 and 20% in 2025.
Why it happened
K J Ramesh, a former Director General of IMD, said the season produced 14 low-pressure systems with 77 low-pressure days between them, but none formed over the Bay of Bengal, the usual source of the region’s rain. They were the remnants of West Pacific systems. He also warned that summer heat could arrive as early as February.
Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather said low-pressure systems are now lingering over land for longer while holding their strength, “partly due to a sustained supply of moisture”. Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said climate change does not cause El Niño but raises background temperatures, which makes its effects more intense, and that local changes such as deforestation can amplify them.
Farms, reservoirs and heat
Nationally, the area under rice was 15.56 lakh hectares lower by 5 October than a year earlier. Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra have declared drought, with Maharashtra’s declaration covering 75% of the state. Live storage in India’s 178 major reservoirs stood at 87.08% of normal on 8 October.
G V Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture said farmers appear to be moving to less water-hungry crops, and warned that weaker groundwater recharge will push up dependence on irrigation.
The dry months were also hot ones. August 2026 was India’s hottest August since 1901 and September its fifth hottest.
What comes next
There is little relief in sight. Forecasts give El Niño an 83% chance of becoming the strongest since 1950 for the October to December period and a near-certain chance of lasting until February 2027. IMD’s outlook shows most of the country getting below-normal rain over the same three months.
Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, said states need to shift “from response to preparedness”, with early warnings and heat action plans in place before the next hot season.