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Flávio Bolsonaro keeps a narrow poll lead over Lula before Sunday's first runoff debate
A third survey in three days puts the senator a point or two ahead, within the margin of error, eight days before Brazil votes. A row over Meta and Lula's accounts has reached the electoral court.
Key points
- A CNT/MDA poll released on Friday put Flávio Bolsonaro on 46.8% against Lula's 45.9%.
- Datafolha and Quaest also gave the senator a lead within the margin of error.
- The two candidates are due to meet in their first runoff debate on Sunday.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has kept a slender lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the race for Brazil’s presidency, with a third poll in as many days putting him narrowly ahead eight days before the runoff on 25 October.
A CNT/MDA survey released on Friday gave Bolsonaro 46.8% and Lula 45.9%. A Quaest poll a day earlier had the senator on 46% to Lula’s 44%, and Datafolha, interviewing 2,520 voters on 13 and 14 October, found him ahead by 47% to 45%. All three gaps are within the polls’ margin of error of about two points, and many analysts see the contest as a toss-up.
Datafolha’s previous survey, a week earlier, had shown a four-point lead, so Lula has narrowed the gap slightly.
Two very different candidates
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. A month ago he was widely expected to win comfortably. Bolsonaro, 42, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence over efforts to overturn the 2022 election and is barred from standing until 2030. The son has campaigned on a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and on tax cuts.
In the first round on 4 October, Bolsonaro won 56,104,503 votes to Lula’s 53,879,538.
Lula got a lift this week when Congress approved a constitutional amendment giving workers two days off a week instead of one, a central promise of his campaign. Datafolha’s next poll is expected to show whether the vote has shifted opinion.
A row over Meta
The campaign has also turned to social media. Meta employees were reported to have said that Lula’s accounts were restricted during the campaign. Meta has acknowledged technical glitches but denies any bias, and a majority of the electoral court has backed equal treatment of both candidates on its platforms.
The two men are due to face each other in their first televised debate of the runoff on Sunday, on the Band network.