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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro head into final TV Globo debate with Brazil's runoff too close to call

Brazilians choose a president on Sunday. The last Datafolha poll has the two candidates level at 50% each, and a poll average gives Flávio Bolsonaro a sliver of a lead.

From the editorial desk · BrasíliaPublished
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (file photos)
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (file photos)Photos: Agência Senado / Wikimedia Commons; Ricardo Stuckert/Presidência da República / Wikimedia Commons, Attribution, CC BY 3.0 br

Key points

  1. Brazil's presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday, 25 October.
  2. Datafolha has the race level at 50% each, with 46% rejecting Flávio and 45% rejecting Lula.
  3. TV Globo hosts the final debate on Friday night, Brazil time, after the evening news.

Brazil’s two presidential candidates were due to meet one last time on television on Friday night before Sunday’s runoff, with the polls offering no clear favourite between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

TV Globo is hosting the final debate after its evening news bulletin, Jornal Nacional. It is the last big set piece of the campaign.

The latest Datafolha poll puts the two men level at 50% each. Rejection is almost as evenly split: 46% of voters say they would never back Flávio, and 45% say the same of Lula. A Rio Times average of 36 national polls by 20 firms since the first round gives Flávio 50.9% to Lula’s 49.1%.

A son against a president

Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator, topped the first round on 4 October with 56,104,503 votes to Lula’s 53,879,538. He is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence and is barred from office until 2030.

Lula, the left-wing incumbent, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. As recently as mid-September he had been expected to win easily.

Flávio has campaigned on a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and on cutting the taxes that fund government programmes. Lula has pointed to an amendment, approved by Congress, that gives workers two paid days off a week instead of one, one of his main social promises.

Relations with Washington hang over the vote. A Flávio win would make him the latest conservative leader in the region closely aligned with Donald Trump, at a time when Brazil’s ties with the United States are already strained.

Voting takes place on Sunday, 25 October.