Trump's Russia sanctions waiver explained: is India off the hook for 100% tariffs?

What is the Graham Act?

A US law meant to squeeze Russia’s oil income by punishing Russia and the countries that buy from it.

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, named after the late Republican senator who championed it, passed the Senate 86 to 11 in August and was signed by President Donald Trump on 18 September. It has two sets of teeth.

The first is tariffs. The law provides for a 500% tariff on goods from Russia, and tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and gas, recalculated every six months, if they keep buying. A further 100% can fall on the five countries that do most to help Russia evade sanctions. Gas buyers that cut Russian supplies significantly can be exempted.

The second is sanctions: blocking orders on much of Russia’s political leadership, its energy and defence companies, its banks and the “shadow fleet” of tankers that move its oil, and a ban on American investment in Russia.

Why was India in the firing line?

Because it is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil.

India imported about 2.08 million barrels a day of Russian crude in August, roughly 45% of its crude imports, according to the shipping data firm Kpler. That puts it among the top five importers alongside China. The penalties were due to bite on purchases made on or after 18 October, which is today.

New Delhi pushed back when the law passed. The Ministry of External Affairs said on 17 September that India remained “firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people”. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar raised the law with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York on 23 September.

What did Trump’s order do?

It spelt out the penalties, then switched almost all of them off.

The order, dated 16 October and released late on Friday night in Washington, lists the duties the law calls for: 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the top importers and facilitators. It then waives them, along with the law’s main sanctions provisions. The law lets the President do this if he certifies to Congress that a waiver is in the US “national interests” and explains why. Trump did so.

Two things survive. Sanctions already in place under the existing Russia-related national emergency are untouched. And the US Trade Representative must still monitor and report on who is buying Russian oil.

Why did he do it?

The order gives only the formal reason, the “national interests”.

The waiver came as the White House pursues its own diplomacy with Moscow, including the energy ceasefire it announced between Russia and Ukraine. Russia welcomed the move: the envoy Kirill Dmitriev called it “an important and truly historic moment”. The law’s Democratic co-author, Senator Richard Blumenthal, called it “craven, cowardly”, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it would mean “financial rewards for Putin”.

So is India in the clear?

For now, yes. Permanently, no.

The waiver removes the most immediate threat to Indian exports to the US, India’s largest market. But it stays in force only until the President or the Secretary of State decides otherwise, and the law itself remains. The monitoring of Russian oil buyers continues, so the list of targets will be ready if Washington changes its mind.

That leaves India where it has been all year: weighing cheap Russian oil against access to the American market, while trade talks with Washington remain stuck. The next chance to read the US mood is Rubio’s visit to Mumbai for talks with Jaishankar on 20 October. The Indian government had not commented on the waiver by Sunday morning.