India's GDP grows 7.8% in April-June 2026, ahead of the RBI's 7% estimate

India’s economy grew 7.8% in real terms in April-June 2026, the first quarter of 2026-27, according to estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on 31 August. Growth was 6.9% in the same quarter a year earlier.

The figure beat the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7.0% for the quarter. In its policy resolution of 7 October, the RBI noted that Q1 growth “was higher than expected”.

The numbers

Real GDP for the quarter was ₹81.36 lakh crore, up from ₹75.46 lakh crore a year earlier. Nominal GDP, which includes price changes, grew 10.3% to ₹88.27 lakh crore.

Gross value added (GVA), which measures output by sector before taxes and subsidies on products, grew 8.2% in real terms, against 7.0% a year earlier. In nominal terms GVA grew 11.5%, to ₹80.53 lakh crore.

The gap between real and nominal growth, about 2.5 percentage points for GDP, reflects price increases across the economy during the quarter.

April-June 2026 at a glance

• 7.8%real GDP growth (6.9% a year ago)
• 10.3%nominal GDP growth
• 8.2%real GVA growth
• 11.9%growth in fixed investment (GFCF)

Services and factories led

The services (tertiary) sector grew 10.0%, up from 8.0% a year earlier. Within it, financial, real estate, IT and professional services grew 12.1%, and trade, hotels, transport and communication grew 8.5%.

The secondary sector grew 8.6%, against 6.1% a year earlier. Manufacturing grew 9.2% and construction 7.7%.

The primary sector lagged at 2.9%. Agriculture grew 3.6%, while mining and quarrying contracted 2.4%.

Financial, real estate, professional services+12.1%

Manufacturing+9.2%

Electricity, gas, water and utilities+8.9%

Trade, hotels, transport, communication+8.5%

Construction+7.7%

Public administration, defence, other services+7.5%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing+3.6%

Mining and quarrying−2.4%

−2.5%0%+20%

Real GVA growth by sector, April-June 2026. Year on year (%)

Item	Value
Financial, real estate, professional services	+12.1%
Manufacturing	+9.2%
Electricity, gas, water and utilities	+8.9%
Trade, hotels, transport, communication	+8.5%
Construction	+7.7%
Public administration, defence, other services	+7.5%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing	+3.6%
Mining and quarrying	−2.4%

Investment picked up

On the spending side, gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment in buildings, machinery and infrastructure, grew 11.9%, up from 5.8%. Its share of nominal GDP rose to 34.3% from 31.4%.

Private consumption grew 7.1%, against 6.8% a year earlier, and its share of GDP was 55.6%. Exports grew 12.0%, according to PIB’s factsheet.

The new base year

This is the first April-June quarter reported on the new national accounts series with base year 2022-23, which MoSPI released on 27 February 2026. The new series uses new price and production indices with base year 2022-23, including an output Producer Price Index, the Index of Industrial Production and a Banking Services Price Index.

It also changes how manufacturing is measured. MoSPI now uses “double deflation”, which adjusts both the value of output and the value of inputs for price changes, in place of the single deflation used earlier.

The revisions raised past growth figures slightly. Growth for 2023-24 moved to 7.3% from 7.2%, for 2024-25 to 7.2% from 7.1%, and for 2025-26 to 7.8% from 7.7%, according to PIB.

What to watch

MoSPI says quarterly estimates are “likely to undergo revisions” as data coverage improves. The April-June figure can still change.

The RBI now projects 7.2% growth for July-September and 7.1% for the full year 2026-27, with growth easing to 6.9% in October-December and 6.8% in January-March. The July-September estimate is scheduled for release on 30 November 2026.