A drought year needs a national plan before the summer, not state-by-state firefighting

The rains that ended on 30 September were the weakest India has had in a decade, 13% below normal across the country. In East and Northeast India they were the weakest ever recorded: 25.6% short, the lowest total since 1901. Meghalaya, home to some of the wettest places on earth, finished 60% down. Bihar was 32% short.

Forecasters do not expect relief. The El Niño warming of the Pacific that weakened the monsoon is expected to persist into early 2027, and the India Meteorological Department sees below-normal rain over most of the country until December. This is not a bad season that will pass. It is the start of a long dry year.

Relief that arrives in fragments

So far the response has been a patchwork. Maharashtra has declared drought in 305 of its 358 talukas and is paying farmers an advance of ₹5,000 before Diwali. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has explained why it is an advance: the rules of the National Disaster Response Fund did not allow quick release, and farmers had in the past received nothing before December. Telangana has set up a six-minister committee as storage in its Krishna basin reservoirs runs 72% below normal. In Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot, the former Chief Minister, says cattle are dying in Jaisalmer and fodder sells at ₹20 a kilogram.

Each state is doing something. None of this adds up to a plan, and the Opposition and ruling parties are spending as much energy arguing over the size of the cheques as over what comes next.

The fair objection

Drought relief is primarily a state subject, and states know their own districts. A national programme run from Delhi could be slower and blunter than what a collector can do with local knowledge. Money, too, is finite in a year when oil prices are high and revenue is under strain.

All true. But the money for big disasters already flows through central rules, and those rules are part of the delay. And water, fodder and grain move across state borders. Coordination is the Centre’s job.

What should be done

First, the Centre should relax the timing rules of the disaster response funds for this year, so that states can pay farmers on declaration rather than after months of assessment, with checks carried out afterwards. A farmer who loses a crop in September needs help before the next sowing, not in the new year.

Second, every drought district needs a fodder and drinking-water plan before February, when the heat may return early. That means mapping fodder stocks, opening cattle camps where needed and arranging water tankers ahead of time, not after the first reports of dying animals.

Third, the rabi season must be protected. Seeds of less water-hungry crops, advice on what to sow and guaranteed procurement for pulses and oilseeds would help farmers who are already shifting away from paddy. The Khet Bachao Abhiyan that begins on Wednesday should be used for exactly this.

Fourth, rural work schemes should be expanded in drought districts so that families do not have to migrate or sell livestock to survive the winter.

Finally, the East and Northeast need particular attention. Nine of the last ten monsoons there have been below normal. A region long thought to have too much water now needs reservoirs, groundwater recharge and crop planning designed for too little.

Climate Trends director Aarti Khosla has urged states to move “from response to preparedness”. That is the right instruction. It should come from the top.

The reporting behind this view

• 25.6%monsoon shortfall in East and Northeast India, the worst since 1901
• 305 of 358Maharashtra talukas declared drought-hit
• 72%shortfall in Telangana's Krishna basin reservoir storage